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        氫燃料電池車加氫成本及其經濟性初探

      • 來源:深圳市國鐵新能源 時間:2018-5-28 16:57

      本分析是以水電解(500立方米/小時)現場制氫、加氫(500公斤/天)來統計測算氫燃料電池車的用氫成本及其經濟性,供大家參考。

      一、制氫

      目前有許多可以商業化的方法,包括煤制氫、天然氣重整制氫、工業副產氫、水電解制氫等。毋庸置疑,以水電解制氫是目前最貴的方法,工業副產氫是最易得、最便宜的方法。今天本意不在制氫方法及其優劣和經濟性比較,僅以水電解現場制氫為例來研究探討燃料電池汽車用氫成本及其水平。

      目前,氫能與燃料電池產業處在發展初期,氫需量還很小,用水電解制氫反而是一種可行易得的方法,尤其適用于項目示范,盡管其經濟性不如其它制氫方法來得更好。水制氫技術無論是在國內或是國際層面都是成熟的,在許多行業如化工、冶煉、光伏制造、制藥、研究機構、實驗室等已經有廣泛應用。在氫能與燃料電池汽車行業,還沒有像目前這樣即將大規模用于燃料電池汽車產業化應用,還沒有引入太多市場與競爭機制,其技術和成本尚未體現出競爭的充分性,而呈現出階段性發展特征。

      二、現場水電解制氫、加氫系統示意圖

      如下圖所示,現場以水電解制氫,來源是水,目前的技術可以是堿性制氫,也可以是純水制氫,制氫后隨即經過二級壓縮,一級壓縮到12.5MPa,二級壓縮到43~45Mpa,以滿足氫氣的加注。有關制氫、加氫系統方案請參考下圖。

      氫燃料電池車加氫成本及其經濟性初探

      圖1:現場水電解制氫、加氫技術方案

      三、水電解制氫綜合成本分析

      1、制氫單位(電費+折舊)成本

      本研究以水電解500立方米/小時的制氫產能為例,現行可采購的設備造價水平在700萬元左右,制氫綜合電耗≤5千瓦時/立方米,按大工業電價平均0.8元/千瓦時測算,一年按照300個工作天,24小時作業,由此可計算每年制氫3,600,000標準立方米,相當于323,640公斤氫。年電耗費用為14,400,000元。本案設備按10年平均折舊,殘值暫不考慮,由此可計算水電解制氫所得每公斤氫氣的折舊加上電費成本為44.49元,每年的折舊加上電費總成本為14,398,743.6元。

      2、制氫單位運營成本

      為簡單測算,制氫運營費用(包括人員薪資、管理運營費用等)按照折舊加上電費的總成本的30%計算,可測算水電解制氫所得每公斤氫氣的運營費用成本為44.49*30%=13.35元。

      3、制氫單位總成本

      本案以乘用車為例,目前以豐田Mirai(未來) 氫燃料電池汽車的百公里氫耗平均水平為1公斤左右(其標稱650公里續航,耗氫5公斤),據上可測得制氫每公斤綜合成本(電費+折舊+運營管理)為57.84元,每公里耗氫綜合成本(電費+折舊+運營費)為0.57元。

      四、加氫站綜合成本分析

      本案以建設一個日加氫能力為500公斤的加氫站為例進行綜合成本分析,加氫站主要由集裝箱增壓裝置(包含壓縮機與加氫機)、流量閥組、冷水機組、固定儲氫瓶等組成。現時可采購的設備造價(含安裝EPC總承包)水平在800萬元左右,加氫站占地在4000平方米左右,加氫站土地、土建、審批手續按300萬元包干(各地土地價格有所不同),加氫站總計造價在1100萬元上下。

      壓縮機平均日加氫能力為500kg/12h@12.5MPa氫源壓力,運行12小時可加20~40輛大巴車(8*140L,單車單次加氫量:12.5~25kg)或 50~100輛物流車(3*140L單車單次加氫量5~10kg) 50~100輛物流車(3*140L,單車單次加氫量5-10kg); 或乘用車85~100輛(單車單次加氫量:5~6kg);氫氣壓縮:43~45MPa; 氫氣加注:32~35MPa。

      1、加氫站單位折舊成本

      加氫站現行按300天、80%的使用率來計算成本。設備折舊同樣按10年,土地房屋按30年(不考慮土地及房屋的殘值及未來的增值或減值影響),由此可計算每公斤加氫折舊成本為7.50元,首年折舊額為90萬元。

      2、加氫站單位人工成本

      本加氫站運營暫設5人(12小時工作制),薪資標準含社保人平均按8萬元一年,可計算每公斤加氫人員成本為3.33元。

      3、加氫站單位運營成本

      為簡單計算,本加氫站的運營管理成本按等同于加氫站單位人工成本測算,也即每公斤加氫運營成本為3.33元。

      4、加氫站綜合單位成本

      仍以豐田Mirai 氫燃料電池汽車的百公里氫耗平均水平為1公斤為例,據上可測得每公斤加氫綜合成本(折舊+人工+運營費)為7.50+3.33+3.33=14.16元。每公里加氫綜合成本為0.14元。

      五、燃料電池汽車用氫總成本分析

      燃料汽車用氫總成本,要包括制氫和加氫成本,總體數據分析測算,可參考下表。

      氫燃料電池車加氫成本及其經濟性初探

      表一:現場制氫加氫成本測算表

      從上述測算,依據上表統計數據可知。每公斤制氫加氫總成本為制氫成本(電費+折舊+管理運營)57.84元+加氫成本(折舊+人工+管理運營)14.16元=72元。以乘用車為例,相當于每公里制氫加氫成本就是0.72元。

      作為氫能消費者,還要加上這兩項的運營方的合理利潤,如果我們假設運營方的合理毛利潤為30%,那么在上述基礎上,成本要進一步增加,每公斤(制氫加氫)取得成本提升為72*130%=93.6元,仍以乘用車為例,相當于每公里制氫加氫取得成本提升為0.72*130%=0.94元。這是靜態測算如果按動態測算(這里就不計算了)每公里用氫取得成本要在1元以上,顯然這比起燃油車加油成本肯定是有些小貴的。通常燃油型普通經濟性乘用車平均油耗成本在0.6~1元/公里左右,相比燃油車成熟市場,使用氫能有巨大的成本下降優勢。

      六、經濟性分析及成本下降途徑

      氫能與燃料電池汽車,在發展產業初期,國家將給與一定扶持政策,財政部等四部委在2014年頒布了《關于新能源汽車充電設施建設獎勵的通知》(財建[2014]692號):“對符合國家技術標準且日加氫能力不少于200公斤的新建燃料電池汽車加氫站每個站獎勵400萬元”的獎勵,奇葩的是,行業還沒有怎么開始,這個政策就已經在2015年過期了,空歡喜一場。上述測算實際是沒有考慮補貼,相當于1元/公里的用氫成本,在產業發展初期是不算貴的。考慮國內的實際發展情況,后續無論是中央政府還是地方政府,都會陸續出臺加氫站的補貼,以逐步將氫能燃料電池汽車從示范到推廣的普及。2018年4月12日,《佛山市南海區促進加氫站建設運營及氫能源車輛運行扶持辦法(暫行)》正式出臺,這是廣東省內首個包含對加氫站運營環節進行補貼的扶持辦法。其中,新建固定式加氫站建設最高補貼800萬元,補貼力度為目前全國各地區公開實施的加氫站扶持政策中最大。

      可想而知,如果規模化建設,大規模應用,用氫成本會大幅下降。一是不使用現場制氫辦法,直接使用外來氫源如工業副產氫、煤制氫等會更加低廉;二是規模化使用,加氫能力更大、單位成本更低;三是可以結合光伏、風電制氫,則更加便宜,在此也不展開了。

      毫無疑問,批量用氫成本比燃油成本低是指日可待的。氫能正在以比我們想象更快的速度撲面而來!

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