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      新聞詳情

        2019年上半年氦氣進口減少4.3%

      • 來源:卓創資訊 時間:2019-8-12 21:25

      2019年上半年我國共進口氦氣2041噸,比2018年上半年減少4.3%,進口均價為56.9美元/公斤,上漲幅度為16.4%。

      據卓創統計,2019年上半年我國共進口氦氣2041噸,比2018年上半年減少4.3%。下半年氦氣市場進口量難以大量消減,市場缺乏利好支撐。

      1. 2019年上半年進口量同比減少4.3%

      圖 1

      2019年中國氦氣市場較為火爆,氦氣資源呈現緊張局面,但氦氣實際進口量并未有明顯下降。據卓創統計,2019年上半年我國共進口氦氣2041噸,比2018年上半年減少4.3%。2019年全球氦氣資源較為緊缺,但是在中國氦氣市場高額利潤支撐下,中國氦氣進口量仍處高位。其中上半年最高點為1月份,進口411.9噸,僅略少于2018年1月份的421噸。最低點為6月份的285.8噸。2019年中國氦氣進口量的小幅下滑,主要是由于美國地區氦氣進口量下滑所導致,目前自美國地區月進口量基本維持在80噸/月左右,自卡塔爾進口量則較波動較大,月進口量在170-250噸。

      2. 進口均價上升

      圖 2

      2019年受BLM拍賣及中國加征氦氣進口關稅等因素影響下,中國氦氣進口價格有所提升,但需要指出的是,相對于中國氦氣市場價格的上漲,其進口成本的提升較為有限。據卓創統計,2019年上半年中國氦氣進口均價為56.9美元/公斤,比2018年上半年的48.9美元/公斤上漲8美元/公斤,上漲幅度為16.4%。中國氦氣進口成本最高的為卡塔爾地區,并非為美國地區。其中上半年自美國地區氦氣進口價由2018年的43-47美元/公斤,上漲至2019年的47-56美元/公斤;自卡塔爾地區氦氣進口價則由50-53美元/公斤,上漲至53-60美元/公斤。

      3. 卡塔爾為我國氦氣進口主要來源地

      圖 3

      據卓創統計,2019年上半年自卡塔爾地區進口氦氣1249.7噸,占比61%;自美國進口521.7噸,占比26%;自澳大利亞進口261噸,占比13%。相較于2018年上半年,自卡塔爾地區進口量及占比均有提升,自美國地區進口量有所下滑。

      4. 下半年市場缺乏利好支撐

      卓創認為,2019年下半年,氦氣進口量在中國市場高利潤支撐下或難有明顯的消減。卡塔爾貨源較為充足,美國地區受部分企業檢修影響或將減少小部分供應量,但主力外企將在全球范圍內調配資源,以在中國市場賺取高額利潤。

      2019年中國氦氣市場價格持續上漲,目前40L瓶裝高純氦氣市場價漲至1700-1900元/瓶,管束氦氣長期協議客戶拿貨價漲至200-270元/立方米,部分市場散戶成交價320-350元/立方米,不同渠道拿貨價差較大。卓創認為,貨源的緊張,究其原因,一方面固然是進口量減少4.3%所帶來的供應面的縮減,另一方面也在于需求的持續增長拉動。除去供需面的直接反應,部分中間貿易商的囤貨也是導致中國氦氣市場貨源緊張的重要因素,目前來看,氦氣市場高價位下,部分終端已減少氦氣使用量,市場高價位成交已顯壓力,部分中間商也以開始放庫存。

      卓創認為,中國氦氣市場價格的大幅上漲與其供需面的反饋并不完全匹配,其中市場炒作及渠道囤貨的支撐仍占較大比重。據卓創了解,在缺少基本面的有力支撐下,炒作因素及渠道囤貨的利好正逐步消失,部分市場高價已出現下滑趨勢。2019年下半年,在未有明顯利好、利空左右下,中國氦氣市場或將理性調整,同時全球氦氣資源的緊張局面也將繼續支撐市場,氦氣市場或將在目前高價位偏弱勢調整為主。

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