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      新聞詳情

        為什么工業氣體是一門好生意?

      • 來源: 時間:2019-7-31 23:08
      華泰證券研究報告內容摘要 華泰證券表示,看好工業氣體外包業務在中國市場的發展,認為本土企業在新增市場上有更強的客戶獲取能力,看好本土企業的擴張能力。


      一問:為什么工業氣體是一門好生意?—>兼具彈性和防御性
      我們認為,工業氣體是兼具彈性和防御性的好生意。主要原因如下:1)工業氣體需求具有連續性,下游眾多,是較為典型的防御性行業;2)工業氣體的運營模式具有“進可攻、退可守”的優秀屬性,大用量客戶通過  15-30年的長期協議提供穩定的現金流;在經濟景氣的時候受益小用量客戶的需求提升,零售氣體量價齊升,提供業績彈性。3)在客戶持續性經營的前提下,工業氣體業務的現金流現值一般大于空分設備銷售。同時,工業氣體巨頭的成長路徑也證明了工業氣體供應是一門好生意,且是一門有潛力出現千億美元市值巨頭公司的生意。

      二問:為什么我國氣體外包規模會持續擴大?—>成本更低,效率更高
      我們認為,我國的工業氣體外包率有望持續快速提升。一方面,橫向比較我國工業氣體外包滲透率處于較低水平,未來提升空間較大;另一方面,外包行為能  1)獲得更低的成本;2)減少重資產購買行為,獲得更高的運營效率;3)利用更專業的操作和應急預案獲得更安全的生產保障。

      三問:為什么成熟工業氣體市場由寡頭壟斷?—>有效市場的自發選擇
      我們認為,寡頭壟斷市場的形成主要系以下三個原因:1)由于氣體具有運輸半徑,工業氣體市場的競爭主要體現為區域性競爭,而寡頭壟斷能減少區域性競爭,提高盈利能力;2)由于工業氣體業務是重資產運營,大公司相比有更強的擴張能力及資源調配能力,因此在競爭中處于優勢地位;3)考慮到空分基地的“現金牛”屬性,收購是短期擴大規模的最佳途徑,因此大公司傾向于不斷兼并小公司來擴大自身規模。基于這三個原因,較為成熟的工業氣體市場均體現出寡頭壟斷的市場格局。

      四問:為什么看好本土龍頭在中國的擴張能力?—>布局全面+存量客戶
      主要原因有以下三點:1)本土龍頭在國內氣體外包市場上已初具規模,我們認為,目前本土龍頭企業在國內市場具備資源調配和快速擴張的能力。2)部分本土龍頭具有空分設備銷售的客戶積累,而空分設備的客戶是較有望轉化為第三方集中供氣客戶的群體,本土龍頭企業具有較為突出的存量客戶優勢。3)本土龍頭的業務布局更深入中國內陸及西北地區,而國際龍頭主要集中于東部沿海地區及個別較發達的華中地區。內陸及西北欠發達地區的商業環境更具有中國特色,本土企業擴張更具優勢。

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